Thursday, September 12, 2013

About the current state of apple stock and hype

I will start by stating that I am not in the least a stock analyst and you should not use anything I am going to say here as financial advice.

So... What is the score?  Apple stock peaked over 700 in September and has been bouncing around.  People are saying that the stock is undervalued.  I would argue that at any given time, stock is right-valued.  It is selling at the price people are willing to pay.

But what do I know as a customer and consumer?
  • As a customer:  I still use and want to use an iPhone and Apple laptop.  I prefer to use Windows as a virtual on a server or my laptop.  I am still happy with my iPhone 5.  I am happy with my Apple TV as well, and kind of want a 2nd one.  I have switched over my home networking to Apple products, and while that has drawbacks (a lack of information about usage) it works more reliably than products I have used in the past.  I am even able to do backups with Apple solutions in a way that works.
  • As a consumer:  Apple stores are packed.  Apple is selling more product than ever overall.
  • Apple customers are in a wait-and-see-what-is-next mode with MANY products.  This is not good for current profits.
I do not think we will see 700 again any time soon.  It will happen after:

  • The new Mac Pro is out for a quarter
  • Haswell comes to Macbook Pro
  • Mavericks is out
  • iOS7 is out
  • new iPhones are out for a quarter
  • the value of the 5S is proven - this may take 6 months after release
  • updated iPads are released
  • a future story for AppleTV is shipping and available for purchase

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